Subjective Probability


Introduction

 The probability of an  incident  is a proportion that tells how possible. it is that an event will take place. The numerator is the number of favorable outcomes and the

Denominator is the number of possible outcomes.

Probability :   number of flattering outcomes / number of possible outcomes

 Probability  is we can try to measure the chances of it occurrence.

I am planning to write more post on How to Find Equivalent Fractions with example, Least Common Multiple Definition. Keep checking my blog.

 

Subjective probability Explanation:

 

 

Here we will explain the subjective probability.

Numerical measure of the likelihood of an event to occur . If an observation which has n possible ways exhaustive and mutually exclusive and out of them in m ways in the event. A occurs, then the probability of occurrence of the  event.

A is  given  by P(a = m/n.

If  in a random  sequence  of n trials of an event, M are favorable  to the event , the  probability of that event occurring is the limit of the ratio M/n, when  n is very very  large , this lies between 0 and 1 .

P(a)=0 means that the event can not take place.

P(a)=1 means the event is bound to occur .

the events,A2,A3……..An are said to the mutually exclusive if ,

P(Ai ∩ Aj)=0 for i=1,2,3,……n.

J=1,2,3,…….n, I ≠ j

He events are said to be exhaustive if

P(A1)+ P(A2)+ P(A3)_………. P(An)=1 if ,

A  ∩ B ≠ 0 then

P(A υ B)=P(A)+ P(B)

And if  A ∩ B  ≠ 0v then

P(A υ B)=P(A)+ P(B)-P(A  B)

 

Subjective probability Example:

 

1. When you toss a coin , there are two ways it can fall. The subjective probability of getting a head on one roll of a coin is one chance out of  two .

Solution:

P(h) means the   probability of getting a head on one toss of a  coin.

P(t) means the   probability of getting a tail on one toss of a  coin.

Step 1 :  the  number of favorable outcomes for  head =1

Step 2 :  the  number of favorable outcomes for tail =1

Step 3 : number of possible outcomes    =2

Step 4 :  the  probability of  the event for head = number of favorable outcomes / number of possible outcomes

Step 5 :  the  probability of  the event for head= P(h)=n(e)/n(s)

Step 6 :   the  probability of  the event for head=1/2

Answer :  1/2

The above problem is sample of subjective probability problem.

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