The probability of an incident is a proportion that tells how possible. it is that an event will take place. The numerator is the number of favorable outcomes and the
Denominator is the number of possible outcomes.
Probability : number of flattering outcomes / number of possible outcomes
Probability is we can try to measure the chances of it occurrence.
Subjective probability Explanation:
Here we will explain the subjective probability.
Numerical measure of the likelihood of an event to occur . If an observation which has n possible ways exhaustive and mutually exclusive and out of them in m ways in the event. A occurs, then the probability of occurrence of the event.
A is given by P(a = m/n.
If in a random sequence of n trials of an event, M are favorable to the event , the probability of that event occurring is the limit of the ratio M/n, when n is very very large , this lies between 0 and 1 .
P(a)=0 means that the event can not take place.
P(a)=1 means the event is bound to occur .
the events,A2,A3……..An are said to the mutually exclusive if ,
P(Ai ∩ Aj)=0 for i=1,2,3,……n.
J=1,2,3,…….n, I ≠ j
He events are said to be exhaustive if
P(A1)+ P(A2)+ P(A3)_………. P(An)=1 if ,
A ∩ B ≠ 0 then
P(A υ B)=P(A)+ P(B)
And if A ∩ B ≠ 0v then
P(A υ B)=P(A)+ P(B)-P(A B)
Subjective probability Example:
1. When you toss a coin , there are two ways it can fall. The subjective probability of getting a head on one roll of a coin is one chance out of two .
P(h) means the probability of getting a head on one toss of a coin.
P(t) means the probability of getting a tail on one toss of a coin.
Step 1 : the number of favorable outcomes for head =1
Step 2 : the number of favorable outcomes for tail =1
Step 3 : number of possible outcomes =2
Step 4 : the probability of the event for head = number of favorable outcomes / number of possible outcomes
Step 5 : the probability of the event for head= P(h)=n(e)/n(s)
Step 6 : the probability of the event for head=1/2
Answer : 1/2
The above problem is sample of subjective probability problem.